The primary objective of this doctoral research is to enhance the existing knowledge regarding the spatial patterns, extent, and intensity of the COVID-19 pandemic in Cyprus by examining the impact of local population connectivity, human mobility, and transportation systems. To address this complex challenge, advanced techniques in satellite remote sensing and spatial analysis in Epidemiology are employed.
The doctoral research is centered on examining the epidemiological consequences of COVID-19 in Cyprus, utilizing geoinformatics technologies, and is structured around two key sections:
- The first section involves the creation of original cartographic products aimed at depicting the epidemiological situation. These products encompass both static and dynamic (animated) maps, along with a web-based GIS platform, all thoroughly designed to serve the research objectives and visualize the spatial spread of COVID-19 and essential epidemiological statistics. Although both static and dynamic maps refer to a specific time period, the first comprise a single snapshot, while the second type displays a moving time series of images, offering multiple snapshots over time. Building upon the previous steps, the next phase involves developing an accessible Web GIS platform. This platform allows users to interact by modifying parameters and visual representations of maps and statistics.
- Addressing the need for a more comprehensive modeling approach, the second section of the doctoral research revolves around the development of an agent-based model (ABM). This model is grounded in the mobility behaviors of the residents of Cyprus and aims to simulate the transmission of COVID-19. It also attempts to evaluate the impacts of government interventions designed to curb the virus’s spread within the Republic of Cyprus.
Digital Maps
Animated (time series) Maps
Web-GIS platform
Through this platform, users can observe the spatial and temporal evolution of the disease in Cyprus, enabling navigation in both space (map navigation, zooming) and time (time slider). To achieve this, the ESRI’s software suite is used, including ArcGIS Online and ArcGIS Pro. While the technologies themselves may not be groundbreaking, the resulting products are unique within their category. This is primarily because there are currently no similar cartographic materials available at the local level. As of the time of drafting the research proposal, there is a noticeable absence of a comprehensive Web GIS platform or extensive thematic maps that depict the epidemiological progression of COVID-19 in Cyprus.
Being the only one of its kind in Cyprus, the developed Web-GIS platform serves as a historical representation of the spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 virus in the territory of the Republic of Cyprus (non-occupied areas). More specifically, it portrays the progression of the virus from March 2020 (first appearance in Cyprus) until the end of 2022 (WHO declared end of the pandemic) in a dashboard that includes:
- A central Map that displays the distribution of confirmed cases (per 100k population) by district dynamically. Considering the frequency and range of the values, the categorization includes five groups (visualized with shades of the red color). As the map is interactive, users can navigate freely in space (or use the predefined “bookmarks”) and time (via the integrated TimeSlider tool). Selecting a specific district polygon reveals additional information.
- Five epidemiological indicators related to the weekly recordings of the: a) confirmed cases by district (per 100k population), b) total confirmed cases, c) confirmed cases (by age group), d) total deaths, and e) total diagnostic tests (PCR and Rapid) in Cyprus.
Human Mobility Model for Cyprus
By studying the dynamic characteristics of human activity in geographical contexts, the research will develop models to understand the influence of individuals’ spatiotemporal behavior on the transmission and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The primary research focus is on human mobility, while Cyprus is the geographical area of study. To explore the significance of human mobility in the spatial and temporal distribution of COVID-19 cases, spatial analysis and modeling techniques are employed to simulate the transmission of the virus in Cyprus. By utilizing these methods, the research seeks to gain insights into how human movement and strong governmental interventions contribute to the spread of COVID-19 within the region.
The ABM mobility model is currently under development using the NetLogo software, primarily due to its robust use and support within the academic community.
